Elves Brener vs Joel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record23-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'2"
72"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamBandog Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1708
If they lose-16→ 1676
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1625 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1705 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Elves BrenerJoel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez66%
Elves Brener 34%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 66% favorite over Elves Brener in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1692 vs 1699), separated by just 7 points.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Elves Brener finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Joel Alvarez 96%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.