Elves Brener vs Joel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-6-0Record23-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'2"
72"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamBandog Fight Club
What's at stake
Joel Alvarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Elves Brener carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1695
If they lose-13→ 1663
If they win+13→ 1745
If they lose-19→ 1713
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1647 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1707 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Elves BrenerJoel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez64%
Elves Brener 36%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 64% favorite over Elves Brener in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Joel Alvarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1732 to 1676, a 56-point edge.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Elves Brener finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Joel Alvarez 96%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.