Elves Brener vs Joel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record23-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'2"
72"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamBandog Fight Club
What's at stake
Joel Alvarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Elves Brener carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1709
If they lose-15→ 1677
If they win+15→ 1730
If they lose-17→ 1698
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1624 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Elves BrenerJoel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez60%
Elves Brener 40%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 60% favorite over Elves Brener in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Joel Alvarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1692, a 23-point edge.
Elves Brener finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Joel Alvarez 96%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.