Ernesta Kareckaite vs Regina Tarin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-2-1Record9-0-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'7"
71"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fighters LandTeamBonebreakers MMA· 1626 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Regina Tarin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +16 while a loss costs more — Ernesta Kareckaite carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+32→ 1614
If they lose-16→ 1566
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-32→ 1667
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1549 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ernesta KareckaiteRegina Tarin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Regina Tarin62%
Ernesta Kareckaite 38%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Regina Tarin a 62% favorite over Ernesta Kareckaite in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Regina Tarin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1582, a 117-point edge.
Regina Tarin enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Ernesta Kareckaite finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Regina Tarin 67%.
Ernesta Kareckaite carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.