Esteban Ribovics vs Mateusz Gamrot
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Mateusz Gamrot62%
Esteban Ribovics 38%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Mateusz Gamrot a 62% favorite over Esteban Ribovics in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Mateusz Gamrot holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1814 to 1762, a 52-point edge.
Esteban Ribovics enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Esteban Ribovics finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Mateusz Gamrot 54%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
17-3-0Record26-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
69"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Mateusz Gamrot is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Esteban Ribovics carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1780
If they lose-14→ 1748
If they win+10→ 1824
If they lose-14→ 1800
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1753 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Esteban RibovicsMateusz Gamrot