Combat Edge Intelligence

Esteban Ribovics vs Mateusz Gamrot

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-3-0Record26-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
69"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Mateusz Gamrot is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Esteban Ribovics carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Esteban RibovicsNow 1745
If they win+19→ 1764
If they lose-13→ 1732
Mateusz GamrotNow 1810
If they win+10→ 1820
If they lose-14→ 1796

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1752 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.27
Sig. strikes / min
3.21
43%
Strike accuracy
52%
5.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
55%
Strike defense
60%
0.35
Takedown avg.
5.22
0%
Takedown accuracy
9%
66%
Takedown defense
83%
0.17
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Esteban RibovicsMateusz Gamrot
175018001850202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (50%)
KO/TKO
8 (31%)
5 (31%)
Submission
6 (23%)
3 (19%)
Decision
12 (46%)

Combat Edge model read

Esteban Ribovics66%
Mateusz Gamrot 34%Elo baseline: 41%

The Combat Edge model makes Esteban Ribovics a 66% favorite over Mateusz Gamrot in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mateusz Gamrot's way (41%).

Mateusz Gamrot holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1810 to 1745, a 65-point edge.

Esteban Ribovics finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Mateusz Gamrot 54%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.