Ethyn Ewing vs Rafael Estevam
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record14-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'8"
69"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight128 lbs
CSW Training CenterTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Rafael Estevam is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Ethyn Ewing carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1702
If they lose-14→ 1670
If they win+14→ 1739
If they lose-18→ 1707
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1539 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ethyn EwingRafael Estevam
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Estevam56%
Ethyn Ewing 44%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Estevam a 56% favorite over Ethyn Ewing in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Rafael Estevam holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1725 to 1684, a 41-point edge.
Ethyn Ewing enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Ethyn Ewing finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Estevam 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.