Felice Herrig vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-10-0Record16-10-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'3"
65"Reach 64"
115 lbsWeight116 lbs
Team CurranTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Karolina Kowalkiewicz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Felice Herrig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1575
If they lose-13→ 1543
If they win+9→ 1640
If they lose-15→ 1616
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1624 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Felice HerrigKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Karolina Kowalkiewicz66%
Felice Herrig 34%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Karolina Kowalkiewicz a 66% favorite over Felice Herrig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Karolina Kowalkiewicz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1556, a 75-point edge.
Felice Herrig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Felice Herrig finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25%.
Felice Herrig and Karolina Kowalkiewicz share 1 common opponent: Alexa Grasso.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.