Fernando Padilla vs Kyle Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record17-7-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'11"
76"Reach 71"
145 lbsWeight149 lbs
Team OyamaTeamHouse of Champions MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1689
If they lose-16→ 1657
If they win+12→ 1681
If they lose-12→ 1657
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Fernando PadillaKyle Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fernando Padilla51%
Kyle Nelson 49%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Fernando Padilla a 51% favorite over Kyle Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1673 vs 1669), separated by just 4 points.
Fernando Padilla finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Nelson 59%.
Fernando Padilla carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.