Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record20-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
69"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
The Goat Shed Academy· 1669 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamCerrado MMA· 1629 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1606 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Francisco PradoIsmael Bonfim
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Prado60%
Ismael Bonfim 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Prado a 60% favorite over Ismael Bonfim in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ismael Bonfim's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1662), separated by just 10 points.
Francisco Prado enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Ismael Bonfim enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Francisco Prado finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ismael Bonfim 65%.
Ismael Bonfim carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.