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UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ALLEN VS DUNCAN

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim

DateOct 10, 2026
DivisionLightweight
StatusScheduled
VenueMeta APEX
BroadcastPARAMOUNT+
Start times & how to watch
Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 10, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET)
Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT)
Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom
Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe
Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney)
Sun 11:00 AM
Francisco Prado12-5-0Francisco Prado vs Ismael BonfimIsmael BonfimMarreta |20-7-0
arFrancisco Prado12-5-0Francisco Pradoar

Fight Overview

Round3
Time5:00
12-5-0Record20-7-0
24Age30
5'10"Height5'9"
69"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
LightweightWeight ClassLightweight
brIsmael BonfimMarreta20-7-0brIsmael Bonfim
Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Ismael Bonfim owns a 10-point Elo edge (good). Ismael Bonfim shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Francisco Prado and Ismael Bonfim across their careers →

Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Francisco PradoIsmael Bonfim
16501700202420252026

Recent form

Francisco PradoL L L L W · -42 Elo last 5
LLLLW
Ismael BonfimL L L W L · -68 Elo last 5
LLLWL

Elo edge

Francisco Prado1652-17 last move
Ismael Bonfim1662-19 last move
Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28
55%Francisco Prado45%Ismael Bonfim
Model favoriteFrancisco Prado
Elo baseline49% for Francisco Prado
Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

Sponsored — betting partner link. 19+ (18+ where permitted). Please play responsibly.

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Francisco Prado is 55%, after Elo alone favored Ismael Bonfim at 51%.

Current Elo ratings1652 · 1662Ismael Bonfim leads by 10 rating points.
Recent opponent quality1606 · 1633Ismael Bonfim faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).
Elo record depth17 · 21 fightsIsmael Bonfim has the deeper counted Elo history.
Largest tracked stat edgesFrancisco Prado 1 · 3 Ismael BonfimStrongest available gap: Submission average toward Francisco Prado.

Stat advantages

Francisco PradovsIsmael Bonfim
Submission average
0.47vs0
Takedown accuracy
19%vs33%
Takedown defense
50%vs77%
Sig. strikes landed per min
4.09vs5.51

Finishing profile

Francisco PradoKO/TKO leads 50% of wins
Ismael BonfimKO/TKO leads 45% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Francisco PradoIsmael Bonfim

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.09Sig. strikes landed per min5.51
UFC lightweight average : 3.82
44Sig. strike accuracy54
UFC lightweight average : 46%
4.95Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.71
UFC lightweight average : 3.91
55Sig. strike defense65
UFC lightweight average : 53%
0.94Takedown average1.06
UFC lightweight average : 1.69
19Takedown accuracy33
UFC lightweight average : 29%
50Takedown defense77
UFC lightweight average : 59%
0.47Submission average0
UFC lightweight average : 0.50
6Wins by knockout9
6Wins by submission4
0Wins by decision7
0Losses by knockout2
0Losses by submission5
5Losses by decision0

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ALLEN VS DUNCAN. Francisco Prado enters with a 12-5-0 record and Ismael Bonfim enters with a 20-7-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim quick answers

When is Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim?

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim is listed for UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ALLEN VS DUNCAN on Oct 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST.

What event is Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim on?

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim is listed on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ALLEN VS DUNCAN.

What are the records for Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim?

Francisco Prado enters with a 12-5-0 record and Ismael Bonfim enters with a 20-7-0 record.

What division is Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim?

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim is listed as a Lightweight fight.

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