Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim

DateOct 10, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 10, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Francisco Prado12-5-0Francisco Prado vs Ismael BonfimIsmael BonfimMarreta |20-7-0

Francisco Prado12-5-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

12-5-0Record20-7-0

24Age30

5'10"Height5'9"

69"Reach71"

155 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Ismael BonfimMarreta20-7-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Ismael Bonfim owns a 10-point Elo edge (good). Ismael Bonfim shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Francisco Prado and Ismael Bonfim across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Francisco PradoIsmael Bonfim

Recent form

Francisco PradoL L L L W · -42 Elo last 5

LLLLW

Ismael BonfimL L L W L · -68 Elo last 5

LLLWL

Elo edge

Francisco Prado1652-17 last move

Ismael Bonfim1662-19 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

55%Francisco Prado45%Ismael Bonfim

Model favoriteFrancisco Prado

Elo baseline49% for Francisco Prado

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Francisco PradoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Francisco Prado is 55%, after Elo alone favored Ismael Bonfim at 51%.

Current Elo ratings1652 · 1662Ismael Bonfim leads by 10 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1606 · 1633Ismael Bonfim faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth17 · 21 fightsIsmael Bonfim has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesFrancisco Prado 1 · 3 Ismael BonfimStrongest available gap: Submission average toward Francisco Prado.

Stat advantages

Francisco PradovsIsmael Bonfim

Submission average

0.47vs0

Takedown accuracy

19%vs33%

Takedown defense

50%vs77%

Sig. strikes landed per min

4.09vs5.51

Finishing profile

Francisco PradoKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Ismael BonfimKO/TKO leads 45% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Francisco PradoIsmael Bonfim

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.09Sig. strikes landed per min5.51

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

44Sig. strike accuracy54

UFC lightweight average : 46%

4.95Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.71

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

55Sig. strike defense65

UFC lightweight average : 53%

0.94Takedown average1.06

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

19Takedown accuracy33

UFC lightweight average : 29%

50Takedown defense77

UFC lightweight average : 59%

0.47Submission average0

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

6Wins by knockout9

6Wins by submission4

0Wins by decision7

0Losses by knockout2

0Losses by submission5

5Losses by decision0

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ALLEN VS DUNCAN. Francisco Prado enters with a 12-5-0 record and Ismael Bonfim enters with a 20-7-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.