Frankie Saenz vs Marlon Vera
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-7-0Record23-12-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
66,0"Reach 70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamTeam Oyama
What's at stake
Marlon Vera is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Frankie Saenz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1610
If they lose-11→ 1578
If they win+8→ 1718
If they lose-16→ 1694
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Frankie SaenzMarlon Vera
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marlon Vera84%
Frankie Saenz 16%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Marlon Vera a 84% favorite over Frankie Saenz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Marlon Vera holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1589, a 121-point edge.
Frankie Saenz enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Frankie Saenz finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Marlon Vera 78%.
Marlon Vera carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.