Gabe Green vs Marcos Aurélio
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Gabe Green and Marcos Aurélio within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1660 vs 1661), separated by just 1 points.
Marcos Aurélio enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Gabe Green finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Aurélio 80%.
Gabe Green carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record10-1-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
73"Reach69"
170 lbsWeight152 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1676
If they lose-16→ 1644
If they win+16→ 1677
If they lose-16→ 1645
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gabe GreenMarcos Aurélio