Geoff Neal vs Kevin Holland
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record29-15-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'3"
75"Reach81"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fortis MMATeamPhalanx MMA Academy
What's at stake
Kevin Holland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Geoff Neal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1710
If they lose-14→ 1678
If they win+10→ 1746
If they lose-14→ 1722
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff NealKevin Holland
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Holland60%
Geoff Neal 40%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Holland a 60% favorite over Geoff Neal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Kevin Holland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1736 to 1692, a 44-point edge.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Geoff Neal finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Holland 79%.
Geoff Neal and Kevin Holland share 1 common opponent: Vicente Luque.
Kevin Holland carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.