George Hardwick vs Kyle Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-4-0Record17-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
72"Reach 71"
154 lbsWeight149 lbs
Middlesbrough Fight Academy· 1600 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamHouse of Champions MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
If they win+12→ 1681
If they lose-12→ 1657
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
George HardwickKyle Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyle Nelson64%
George Hardwick 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Nelson a 64% favorite over George Hardwick in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans George Hardwick's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1669), separated by just 0 points.
George Hardwick finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Nelson 59%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.