Combat Edge Intelligence

Geraldo de Freitas Jr. vs Victor Madrigal

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-7-0Record15-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
39,0"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamMad Dogs MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Geraldo de Freitas Jr.Now 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
Victor MadrigalNow 1614
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.67
Sig. strikes / min
2.31
52%
Strike accuracy
39%
2.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
9.56
50%
Strike defense
51%
3
Takedown avg.
0
45%
Takedown accuracy
0%
59%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Geraldo de Freitas Jr.Victor Madrigal
1600165020232024

Win method breakdown

4 (29%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
7 (50%)
Submission
5 (33%)
3 (21%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Victor Madrigal57%
Geraldo de Freitas Jr. 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Victor Madrigal a 57% favorite over Geraldo de Freitas Jr. in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1614), separated by just 1 points.

Geraldo de Freitas Jr. enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Geraldo de Freitas Jr. finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Victor Madrigal 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.