Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-1Record12-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
72"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKaizen MMA
What's at stake
Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Nurullo Aliev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1812
If they lose-14→ 1788
If they win+19→ 1752
If they lose-13→ 1720
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Grant DawsonNurullo Aliev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson60%
Nurullo Aliev 40%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 60% favorite over Nurullo Aliev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1733, a 69-point edge.
Nurullo Aliev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Grant Dawson finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Nurullo Aliev 17%.
Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev share 1 common opponent: Joe Solecki.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.