Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson79%
Nurullo Aliev 21%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 79% favorite over Nurullo Aliev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1811 to 1722, a 89-point edge.
Grant Dawson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Grant Dawson finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Nurullo Aliev 17%.
Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev share 1 common opponent: Joe Solecki.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
25-3-1Record12-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
72"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKaizen MMA
What's at stake
Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Nurullo Aliev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1820
If they lose-15→ 1796
If they win+20→ 1742
If they lose-12→ 1710
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Grant DawsonNurullo Aliev