Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev

DateOct 24, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueEtihad Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 2:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 11:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 7:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 8:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Grant DawsonKGD |24-3-1Grant Dawson vs Nurullo AlievNurullo AlievTajik Eagle |12-0-0

Grant DawsonKGD24-3-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

24-3-1Record12-0-0

32Age26

5'10"Height5'10"

72"Reach72"

155 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Nurullo AlievTajik Eagle12-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Grant Dawson owns a 67-point Elo edge (great). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Grant DawsonNurullo Aliev

Recent form

Grant DawsonW L W W W · +31 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Nurullo AlievW W W W W · +90 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Grant Dawson1801+13 last move

Nurullo Aliev1734+14 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

53%Grant Dawson47%Nurullo Aliev

Model favoriteGrant Dawson

Elo baseline60% for Grant Dawson

Matchup adjustment-7 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Grant DawsonStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Grant Dawson leads the full model at 53%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratings1801 · 1734Grant Dawson leads by 67 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1723 · 1584Grant Dawson faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth26 · 12 fightsGrant Dawson has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesGrant Dawson 2 · 2 Nurullo AlievStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Nurullo Aliev.

Stat advantages

Grant DawsonvsNurullo Aliev

Takedown accuracy

0%vs10%

Submission average

1.36vs0.46

Sig. strikes landed per min

3.14vs2.29

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

2.14vs1.59

Finishing profile

Grant Dawsonsubmission leads 58% of wins

Nurullo Alievdecision leads 83% of wins

Common opponents

Joe Solecki Grant Dawson: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Jun 1, 2024 Nurullo Aliev: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Jan 11, 2025

Mateusz Rębecki Grant Dawson: win · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · May 9, 2026Nurullo Aliev: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Nov 11, 2023

Tale of the tape

Grant DawsonNurullo Aliev

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.14Sig. strikes landed per min2.29

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

51Sig. strike accuracy44

UFC lightweight average : 46%

2.14Sig. strikes absorbed per min1.59

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

45Sig. strike defense55

UFC lightweight average : 53%

3.58Takedown average3.48

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

0Takedown accuracy10

UFC lightweight average : 29%

67Takedown defense80

UFC lightweight average : 59%

1.36Submission average0.46

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

5Wins by knockout2

14Wins by submission0

5Wins by decision10

3Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UFC 333 : VOLKANOVSKI VS EVLOEV. Grant Dawson enters with a 24-3-1 record and Nurullo Aliev enters with a 12-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.