Gregory Rodrigues vs Israel Adesanya
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-6-0Record24-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'4"
75"Reach80"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamCity Kickboxing
What's at stake
Gregory Rodrigues is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Israel Adesanya carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1788
If they lose-13→ 1764
If they win+13→ 1774
If they lose-11→ 1750
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gregory RodriguesIsrael Adesanya
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gregory Rodrigues87%
Israel Adesanya 13%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Gregory Rodrigues a 87% favorite over Israel Adesanya in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Gregory Rodrigues holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1777 to 1761, a 16-point edge.
Gregory Rodrigues enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Gregory Rodrigues finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Israel Adesanya 67%.
Gregory Rodrigues and Israel Adesanya share 1 common opponent: Jared Cannonier.
Israel Adesanya carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.