Guilherme Pat vs Steven Asplund
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-2-0Record8-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'5"
80"Reach78"
265 lbsWeight261 lbs
What's at stake
Steven Asplund is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Guilherme Pat carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+27→ 1621
If they lose-21→ 1573
If they win+14→ 1658
If they lose-18→ 1626
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Guilherme PatSteven Asplund
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steven Asplund60%
Guilherme Pat 40%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Steven Asplund a 60% favorite over Guilherme Pat in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Steven Asplund holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1644 to 1594, a 50-point edge.
Guilherme Pat enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Guilherme Pat finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Steven Asplund 75%.
Guilherme Pat carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.