Combat Edge Intelligence

Guilherme Pat vs Steven Asplund

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-1-0Record7-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'5"
80"Reach78"
265 lbsWeight261 lbs
Lotus ClubTeamMcCune's Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Guilherme PatNow 1618
If they win+24→ 1642
If they lose-24→ 1594
Steven AsplundNow 1620
If they win+24→ 1644
If they lose-24→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1527 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.27
Sig. strikes / min
19.93
64%
Strike accuracy
59%
2.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
7.49
62%
Strike defense
58%
0
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
0%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Guilherme PatSteven Asplund
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (67%)
KO/TKO
6 (86%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (33%)
Decision
1 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Guilherme Pat and Steven Asplund within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1618 vs 1620), separated by just 2 points.

Guilherme Pat finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Steven Asplund 86%.

Guilherme Pat carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.