Combat Edge Intelligence

Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

6-2-0Record11-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'1"
80"Reach74"
265 lbsWeight257 lbs
Lotus ClubTeamSpartan MMA

What's at stake

Thomas Petersen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Guilherme Pat carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Guilherme PatNow 1594
If they win+26→ 1620
If they lose-22→ 1572
Thomas PetersenNow 1625
If they win+15→ 1640
If they lose-17→ 1608

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1538 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.70
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
62%
Strike accuracy
60%
2.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.61
52%
Strike defense
55%
0
Takedown avg.
3.01
Not available
Takedown accuracy
43%
100%
Takedown defense
88%
0
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Guilherme PatThomas Petersen
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (67%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (9%)
2 (33%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Thomas Petersen62%
Guilherme Pat 38%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 62% favorite over Guilherme Pat in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Thomas Petersen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1625 to 1594, a 31-point edge.

Guilherme Pat enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Guilherme Pat finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.

Guilherme Pat carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.