Combat Edge Intelligence

Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-1-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'1"
80"Reach74"
265 lbsWeight257 lbs
Lotus ClubTeamSpartan MMA

What's at stake

Thomas Petersen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Guilherme Pat carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Guilherme PatNow 1618
If they win+25→ 1643
If they lose-23→ 1595
Thomas PetersenNow 1639
If they win+15→ 1654
If they lose-17→ 1622

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1527 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.27
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
64%
Strike accuracy
60%
2.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.61
62%
Strike defense
55%
0
Takedown avg.
3.01
TBD
Takedown accuracy
43%
0%
Takedown defense
88%
0
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Guilherme PatThomas Petersen
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (67%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (9%)
2 (33%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Guilherme Pat and Thomas Petersen within a point of even.

Thomas Petersen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1639 to 1618, a 21-point edge.

Guilherme Pat finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.

Guilherme Pat carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.