Heather Jo Clark vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-6-0Record16-10-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'6"Height5'3"
64.00Reach 64"
115 lbsWeight116 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Karolina Kowalkiewicz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Heather Jo Clark carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+33→ 1530
If they lose-15→ 1482
If they win+8→ 1639
If they lose-16→ 1615
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1620 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Heather Jo ClarkKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Karolina Kowalkiewicz70%
Heather Jo Clark 30%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Karolina Kowalkiewicz a 70% favorite over Heather Jo Clark in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Karolina Kowalkiewicz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1497, a 134-point edge.
Heather Jo Clark enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Heather Jo Clark finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25%.
Heather Jo Clark and Karolina Kowalkiewicz share 1 common opponent: Alexa Grasso.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.