Combat Edge Intelligence

Herbert Burns vs Nate Landwehr

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-6-0Record18-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
73"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamMMA Masters

What's at stake

Nate Landwehr is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Herbert Burns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Herbert BurnsNow 1614
If they win+17→ 1631
If they lose-15→ 1599
Nate LandwehrNow 1640
If they win+15→ 1655
If they lose-17→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1619 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1678 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.86
Sig. strikes / min
5.63
37%
Strike accuracy
46%
5.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.83
42%
Strike defense
52%
2.94
Takedown avg.
0.76
35%
Takedown accuracy
42%
67%
Takedown defense
72%
1.84
Submission avg.
0.76

Trajectory

Herbert BurnsNate Landwehr
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (9%)
KO/TKO
9 (50%)
8 (73%)
Submission
2 (11%)
2 (18%)
Decision
7 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Nate Landwehr62%
Herbert Burns 38%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Nate Landwehr a 62% favorite over Herbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Nate Landwehr holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1640 to 1614, a 26-point edge.

Herbert Burns enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Nate Landwehr enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Herbert Burns finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Nate Landwehr 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.