Combat Edge Intelligence

Herdem Alacabek vs Luke Fernandez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-1-0Record6-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Black HouseTeamDante Rivera BJJ

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Herdem AlacabekNow 1616
If they win+24→ 1640
If they lose-24→ 1592
Luke FernandezNow 1612
If they win+24→ 1636
If they lose-24→ 1588

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1519 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.84
Sig. strikes / min
32
66%
Strike accuracy
100%
6.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0
23%
Strike defense
100%
2.06
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
43%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Herdem AlacabekLuke Fernandez
155016001650201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (60%)
KO/TKO
5 (83%)
2 (40%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Luke Fernandez63%
Herdem Alacabek 37%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Luke Fernandez a 63% favorite over Herdem Alacabek in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Herdem Alacabek's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1616 vs 1612), separated by just 4 points.

Herdem Alacabek finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Luke Fernandez 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.