Ian Heinisch vs Kelvin Gastelum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Genesis MMATeamFight Ready
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ian HeinischKelvin Gastelum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kelvin Gastelum70%
Ian Heinisch 30%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 70% favorite over Ian Heinisch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1693), separated by just 8 points.
Ian Heinisch enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ian Heinisch finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.