Ion Cutelaba vs Ivan Erslan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-12-1Record15-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
75"Reach72"
205 lbsWeight206 lbs
Timoshkov Sport ClubTeamAmerican Top Team Zagreb
What's at stake
Ion Cutelaba is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Ivan Erslan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1652
If they lose-13→ 1628
If they win+18→ 1623
If they lose-14→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1678 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ion CutelabaIvan Erslan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ion Cutelaba51%
Ivan Erslan 49%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Ion Cutelaba a 51% favorite over Ivan Erslan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Ion Cutelaba holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1641 to 1605, a 36-point edge.
Ion Cutelaba finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Ivan Erslan 73%.
Ion Cutelaba and Ivan Erslan share 1 common opponent: Navajo Stirling.
Ion Cutelaba carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.