Israel Adesanya vs Jan Błachowicz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-6-0Record29-12-2
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
80"Reach78"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
City KickboxingTeamWCA Fight Team· 1652 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Israel Adesanya is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jan Błachowicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1772
If they lose-13→ 1748
If they win+13→ 1746
If they lose-11→ 1722
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1759 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Israel AdesanyaJan Błachowicz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Israel Adesanya and Jan Błachowicz within a point of even.
Israel Adesanya holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1761 to 1733, a 28-point edge.
Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Israel Adesanya finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Jan Błachowicz 62%.
Israel Adesanya and Jan Błachowicz share 1 common opponent: Alex Pereira.
Israel Adesanya carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.