Israel Adesanya vs Jan Błachowicz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-6-0Record29-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
80"Reach78"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
City KickboxingTeamWCA Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1773
If they lose-12→ 1749
If they win+12→ 1760
If they lose-12→ 1736
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1765 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Israel AdesanyaJan Błachowicz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Israel Adesanya60%
Jan Błachowicz 40%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Israel Adesanya a 60% favorite over Jan Błachowicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1761 vs 1748), separated by just 13 points.
Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Israel Adesanya finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Jan Błachowicz 62%.
Israel Adesanya and Jan Błachowicz share 1 common opponent: Alex Pereira.
Israel Adesanya carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.