Israel Adesanya vs Paulo Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-6-0Record16-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'0"
80"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
City KickboxingTeamTeam Borracha
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1773
If they lose-12→ 1749
If they win+16→ 1770
If they lose-16→ 1738
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1747 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Israel AdesanyaPaulo Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa59%
Israel Adesanya 41%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 59% favorite over Israel Adesanya in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Israel Adesanya's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1761 vs 1754), separated by just 7 points.
Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Israel Adesanya finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Costa 81%.
Israel Adesanya and Paulo Costa share 3 common opponents: Sean Strickland, Robert Whittaker and Marvin Vettori.
Israel Adesanya carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.