Jack Hermansson vs Kelvin Gastelum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-10-0Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'9"
77"Reach71"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Frontline AcademyTeamFight Ready
What's at stake
Jack Hermansson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1732
If they lose-13→ 1708
If they win+13→ 1706
If they lose-11→ 1682
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jack HermanssonKelvin Gastelum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kelvin Gastelum56%
Jack Hermansson 44%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 56% favorite over Jack Hermansson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jack Hermansson's way (46%).
Jack Hermansson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1721 to 1693, a 28-point edge.
Jack Hermansson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jack Hermansson finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.
Jack Hermansson and Kelvin Gastelum share 3 common opponents: Joe Pyfer, Chris Curtis and Jared Cannonier.
Jack Hermansson carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.