Jai Herbert vs Kyle Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-1Record17-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'11"
77"Reach 71"
155 lbsWeight149 lbs
What's at stake
Jai Herbert is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Kyle Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1705
If they lose-17→ 1673
If they win+13→ 1683
If they lose-11→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1662 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jai HerbertKyle Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jai Herbert70%
Kyle Nelson 30%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Jai Herbert a 70% favorite over Kyle Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Jai Herbert holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1690 to 1670, a 20-point edge.
Jai Herbert enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Jai Herbert finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Nelson 59%.
Jai Herbert carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.