Jai Herbert vs Kyle Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-6-1Record17-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'11"
77"Reach 71"
155 lbsWeight149 lbs
Renegade Jiu JitsuTeamHouse of Champions MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1690
If they lose-16→ 1658
If they win+12→ 1681
If they lose-12→ 1657
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jai HerbertKyle Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jai Herbert60%
Kyle Nelson 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Jai Herbert a 60% favorite over Kyle Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1674 vs 1669), separated by just 5 points.
Jai Herbert finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Nelson 59%.
Jai Herbert carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.