Jake Ellenberger vs Matt Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-15-0Record24-19-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
39,5"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Reign MMATeamImmortal Fight Team
What's at stake
Jake Ellenberger is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matt Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1676
If they lose-13→ 1652
If they win+13→ 1637
If they lose-11→ 1613
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1691 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jake EllenbergerMatt Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Ellenberger61%
Matt Brown 39%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Ellenberger a 61% favorite over Matt Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Jake Ellenberger holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1665 to 1624, a 41-point edge.
Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jake Ellenberger finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Matt Brown 92%.
Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown share 2 common opponents: Bryan Barberena and Ben Saunders.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.