Jared Gordon vs Jim Miller
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Jim Miller72%
Jared Gordon 28%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Jim Miller a 72% favorite over Jared Gordon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Jim Miller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1703 to 1663, a 40-point edge.
Jared Gordon enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jared Gordon finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Jim Miller 74%.
Jim Miller carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
21-10-0Record39-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
68"Reach71"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamSussex County MMA
What's at stake
Jim Miller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jared Gordon carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1676
If they lose-11→ 1652
If they win+11→ 1714
If they lose-13→ 1690
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1711 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1683 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jared GordonJim Miller