Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-0Record26-8-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'10"
68"Reach71"
156 lbsWeight145 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamChute Boxe Joao Emilio· 1699 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1687
If they lose-12→ 1663
If they win+12→ 1696
If they lose-12→ 1672
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1702 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1683 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jared GordonMelquizael Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jared Gordon56%
Melquizael Costa 44%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Jared Gordon a 56% favorite over Melquizael Costa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Melquizael Costa's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1675 vs 1684), separated by just 9 points.
Jared Gordon enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jared Gordon finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Melquizael Costa 65%.
Jared Gordon and Melquizael Costa share 1 common opponent: Thiago Moisés.
Melquizael Costa carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.