Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa

Nov 14, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast43%Jared Gordon57%Melquizael CostaFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMadison Square Garden

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Jared GordonFlash |21-9-0Jared Gordon vs Melquizael CostaMelquizael CostaMelk / Kaut |26-8-0

Jared GordonFlash21-9-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

21-9-0Record26-8-0

38Age30

5'9"Height5'10"

68"Reach71"

156 lbsWeight145 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Melquizael CostaMelk / Kaut26-8-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Melquizael Costa owns a 9-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Jared Gordon and Melquizael Costa across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Jared GordonMelquizael Costa

Recent form

Jared GordonL L W L W · -2 Elo last 5

LLWLW

Melquizael CostaL W W W W · +56 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Jared Gordon1675-14 last move

Melquizael Costa1684-9 last move

Why they are ranked here

Jared Gordon#115 of 459 active Lightweight fighters · 1675 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Mark Madsen (rated 1717 at the time): +22.
Costliest loss: Lost to Rafa García (rated 1723 at the time): -18.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -2 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #114 Umakhan Ibragimov, 2 ahead of #116 Valeriu Mircea.

Melquizael Costa#93 of 453 active Featherweight fighters · 1684 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (rated 1707 at the time): +26.
Costliest loss: Lost to Steve Garcia (rated 1654 at the time): -16.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +56 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #92 Alikhan Suleymanov, 0 ahead of #94 Patryk Kaczmarczyk.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

43%Jared Gordon57%Melquizael Costa

Model favoriteMelquizael Costa

Elo baseline51% for Melquizael Costa

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Melquizael CostaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Melquizael Costa leads the full model at 57%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratings1675 · 1684Melquizael Costa leads by 9 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1702 · 1683Jared Gordon faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth26 · 29 fightsMelquizael Costa has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesJared Gordon 2 · 2 Melquizael CostaStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Jared Gordon.

What's at stake

Jared GordonNow 1675 · #115 Lightweight

Wins by decision+12→ 1687

Loses by decision-12→ 1663

Melquizael CostaNow 1684 · #93 Featherweight

Wins by decision+12→ 1696

Loses by decision-12→ 1672

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Jared GordonvsMelquizael Costa

Takedown accuracy

9%vs0%

Submission average

0vs0.84

Sig. strikes landed per min

5.57vs4.29

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

4.11vs3.19

Finishing profile

Jared Gordondecision leads 52% of wins

Melquizael CostaKO/TKO leads 35% of wins

Common opponents

Thiago Moisés Jared Gordon: win · KO (punches) · May 17, 2025 Melquizael Costa: loss · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Jan 21, 2023

Tale of the tape

Jared GordonMelquizael Costa

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

5.57Sig. strikes landed per min4.29

UFC lightweight average : 3.84

54Sig. strike accuracy47

UFC lightweight average : 46%

4.11Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.19

UFC lightweight average : 3.89

55Sig. strike defense50

UFC lightweight average : 54%

1.91Takedown average1.53

UFC lightweight average : 1.66

9Takedown accuracy0

UFC lightweight average : 28%

60Takedown defense51

UFC lightweight average : 58%

0Submission average0.84

UFC lightweight average : 0.54

8Wins by knockout9

2Wins by submission8

11Wins by decision9

5Losses by knockout2

2Losses by submission2

2Losses by decision4

Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UFC 334 : GANE VS HOKIT. Jared Gordon enters with a 21-9-0 record and Melquizael Costa enters with a 26-8-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.