Jared Gordon vs Rafa García
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-0Record19-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
68"Reach70"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Elevation
What's at stake
Rafa García is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Jared Gordon carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1689
If they lose-10→ 1665
If they win+13→ 1753
If they lose-19→ 1721
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1702 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jared GordonRafa García
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafa García62%
Jared Gordon 38%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafa García a 62% favorite over Jared Gordon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Rafa García holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1675, a 65-point edge.
Jared Gordon enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jared Gordon finishes 48% of wins inside the distance, Rafa García 56%.
Jared Gordon and Rafa García share 1 common opponent: Grant Dawson.
Rafa García carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.