Jesus Aguilar vs Luis Gurule
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-4-0Record11-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'5"
62"Reach64"
128 lbsWeight126 lbs
Victory Fight Club· 1683 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamFactory X
What's at stake
Jesus Aguilar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Luis Gurule carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1700
If they lose-18→ 1668
If they win+18→ 1661
If they lose-14→ 1629
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Jesus AguilarLuis Gurule
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jesus Aguilar63%
Luis Gurule 37%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Jesus Aguilar a 63% favorite over Luis Gurule in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Jesus Aguilar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1686 to 1643, a 43-point edge.
Jesus Aguilar finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Luis Gurule 55%.
Luis Gurule carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.