Combat Edge Intelligence

Jesus Aguilar vs Luis Gurule

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-4-0Record11-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'5"
62"Reach64"
128 lbsWeight126 lbs
Victory Fight ClubTeamFactory X

What's at stake

Jesus Aguilar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Luis Gurule carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jesus AguilarNow 1685
If they win+14→ 1699
If they lose-18→ 1667
Luis GuruleNow 1641
If they win+18→ 1659
If they lose-14→ 1627

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.54
Sig. strikes / min
5.70
38%
Strike accuracy
44%
2.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.37
61%
Strike defense
58%
1.52
Takedown avg.
0.67
30%
Takedown accuracy
16%
45%
Takedown defense
59%
1.14
Submission avg.
0.22

Trajectory

Jesus AguilarLuis Gurule
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
7 (58%)
Submission
1 (9%)
4 (33%)
Decision
5 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Jesus Aguilar52%
Luis Gurule 48%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Jesus Aguilar a 52% favorite over Luis Gurule in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Jesus Aguilar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1641, a 44-point edge.

Jesus Aguilar finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Luis Gurule 55%.

Luis Gurule carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.