Jesus Aguilar vs Rei Tsuruya
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-4-0Record11-1-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'7"
62"Reach68"
128 lbsWeight126 lbs
Victory Fight ClubTeamThe Blackbelt Japan
What's at stake
Rei Tsuruya is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jesus Aguilar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1703
If they lose-14→ 1671
If they win+14→ 1743
If they lose-18→ 1711
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jesus AguilarRei Tsuruya
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rei Tsuruya64%
Jesus Aguilar 36%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Rei Tsuruya a 64% favorite over Jesus Aguilar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Rei Tsuruya holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1729 to 1685, a 44-point edge.
Jesus Aguilar finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Rei Tsuruya 82%.
Jesus Aguilar and Rei Tsuruya share 1 common opponent: Luis Gurule.
Rei Tsuruya carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.