Combat Edge Intelligence

Jesus Aguilar vs Stewart Nicoll

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-4-0Record8-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'5"
62"Reach65"
128 lbsWeight125 lbs
Victory Fight ClubTeamBroz Martial Arts

What's at stake

Jesus Aguilar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Stewart Nicoll carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jesus AguilarNow 1685
If they win+12→ 1697
If they lose-20→ 1665
Stewart NicollNow 1605
If they win+20→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1593

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1553 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.54
Sig. strikes / min
3.63
38%
Strike accuracy
39%
2.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.84
61%
Strike defense
50%
1.52
Takedown avg.
1.63
30%
Takedown accuracy
4%
45%
Takedown defense
29%
1.14
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jesus AguilarStewart Nicoll
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
4 (50%)
7 (58%)
Submission
3 (38%)
4 (33%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Jesus Aguilar63%
Stewart Nicoll 37%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Jesus Aguilar a 63% favorite over Stewart Nicoll in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Jesus Aguilar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1605, a 80-point edge.

Stewart Nicoll enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jesus Aguilar finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Stewart Nicoll 88%.

Stewart Nicoll carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.