Jimi Manuwa vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-6-0Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReach 76"
205 lbsWeight241 lbs
Keddles GymTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
Thiago Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jimi Manuwa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1674
If they lose-15→ 1642
If they win+11→ 1685
If they lose-13→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1700 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jimi ManuwaThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Santos56%
Jimi Manuwa 44%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Santos a 56% favorite over Jimi Manuwa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Thiago Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1657, a 17-point edge.
Jimi Manuwa enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Jimi Manuwa finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Jimi Manuwa and Thiago Santos share 2 common opponents: Aleksandar Rakić and Jan Błachowicz.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.