Joe Pyfer vs Kelvin Gastelum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-3-0Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'9"
75"Reach71"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team BalanceTeamFight Ready
What's at stake
Joe Pyfer is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1776
If they lose-19→ 1744
If they win+14→ 1707
If they lose-10→ 1683
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joe PyferKelvin Gastelum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Pyfer73%
Kelvin Gastelum 27%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Pyfer a 73% favorite over Kelvin Gastelum in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Joe Pyfer holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1763 to 1693, a 70-point edge.
Joe Pyfer enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joe Pyfer finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.
Joe Pyfer and Kelvin Gastelum share 1 common opponent: Jack Hermansson.
Joe Pyfer carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.