Joel Alvarez vs Jonathan Micallef
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-5-0Record10-1-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
77"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
If they win+16→ 1719
If they lose-16→ 1687
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1705 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezJonathan Micallef
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jonathan Micallef56%
Joel Alvarez 44%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Jonathan Micallef a 56% favorite over Joel Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1703), separated by just 4 points.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jonathan Micallef enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Jonathan Micallef 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.