Joel Alvarez vs Saygid Izagakhmaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-5-0Record22-4-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
77"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Bandog Fight ClubTeamAbdulmanap Nurmagomedov School· 1729 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1748
If they lose-16→ 1716
If they win+12→ 1746
If they lose-12→ 1722
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1707 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezSaygid Izagakhmaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez52%
Saygid Izagakhmaev 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 52% favorite over Saygid Izagakhmaev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Saygid Izagakhmaev's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1732 vs 1734), separated by just 2 points.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Saygid Izagakhmaev enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Saygid Izagakhmaev 73%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.