Joel Alvarez vs Thiago Moisés
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-4-0Record19-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'2"Height5'9"
77"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Bandog Fight ClubTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Joel Alvarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Thiago Moisés carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1730
If they lose-17→ 1698
If they win+13→ 1696
If they lose-11→ 1672
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1697 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezThiago Moisés
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez56%
Thiago Moisés 44%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 56% favorite over Thiago Moisés in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Joel Alvarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1683, a 32-point edge.
Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.