John Castañeda vs Mark Vologdin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-8-1Record12-5-2
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'5"
71"Reach65"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
The AcademyTeamAllstars Training Center· 1678 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
John Castañeda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Mark Vologdin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1706
If they lose-15→ 1682
If they win+19→ 1640
If they lose-13→ 1608
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
John CastañedaMark Vologdin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Castañeda83%
Mark Vologdin 17%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes John Castañeda a 83% favorite over Mark Vologdin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
John Castañeda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1697 to 1621, a 76-point edge.
John Castañeda finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Mark Vologdin 83%.
John Castañeda carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.