Combat Edge Intelligence

Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Oban Elliott

Oban Elliott

“The Welsh Gangster”

12-4-0WelterweightUFC

1650 Good

Tale of the tape

10-1-0 Record 12-4-0
Welterweight Division Welterweight
6'0" Height 5'11"
77" Reach 72"
170 lbs Weight 170 lbs
Combat 1 MMA Team Shore MMA

What's at stake

Jonathan Micallef is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Oban Elliott carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Jonathan MicallefNow 1696
If they win+14→ 1710
If they lose-18→ 1678
Oban ElliottNow 1650
If they win+18→ 1668
If they lose-14→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Tracked stat edges

3.96
Sig. strikes / min
3.62
41%
Strike accuracy
48%
4.22
Strikes absorbed / min Lower is better
2.24
56%
Strike defense
61%
1.13
Takedown avg.
1.52
67%
Takedown accuracy
15%
75%
Takedown defense
52%
1.13
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jonathan Micallef Oban Elliott
1600 1650 1700 2024 2025 2026

Win method breakdown

2 (20%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
4 (40%)
Submission
3 (25%)
4 (40%)
Decision
6 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Jonathan Micallef61%
Oban Elliott39%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Jonathan Micallef a 61% favorite over Oban Elliott in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Jonathan Micallef holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1696 to 1650, a 46-point edge.

Jonathan Micallef enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Oban Elliott enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jonathan Micallef finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Oban Elliott 50%.

Jonathan Micallef carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.