Josh Parisian vs Kacper Paczóski
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Josh Parisian57%
Kacper Paczóski 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Josh Parisian a 57% favorite over Kacper Paczóski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1575), separated by just 1 points.
Josh Parisian enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Josh Parisian finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Kacper Paczóski 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record4-1-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'7"
79"Reach-
266 lbsWeight265 lbs
Scorpion Fighting System· 1550 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamUniq Fight Club· 1580 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560
If they win+24→ 1599
If they lose-24→ 1551
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Josh ParisianKacper Paczóski