Joshua Pacio vs Keito Yamakita
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Joshua Pacio58%
Keito Yamakita 42%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Joshua Pacio a 58% favorite over Keito Yamakita in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1724 vs 1711), separated by just 13 points.
Keito Yamakita enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joshua Pacio finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Keito Yamakita 46%.
Joshua Pacio and Keito Yamakita share 2 common opponents: Yosuke Saruta and Alex Silva.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
24-5-0Record13-1-0
StrawweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'1"
-Reach65"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Lakay La Trinidad GymTeamReversal Gym Shinjuku Me, We· 1605 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1736
If they lose-12→ 1712
If they win+17→ 1728
If they lose-15→ 1696
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1617 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joshua PacioKeito Yamakita
Win method breakdown
Common opponents (2)
WinKO/TKO (Punches) · 2021
WinKO (Head Kick) · 2019
WinDecision (Split) · 2024
WinDecision (Split) · 2020
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2023