Joshua Pacio vs Keito Yamakita

Nov 18, 2026 · Internet PPV

Combat Edge model forecast53%Joshua Pacio47%Keito YamakitaFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 18, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueEBARA WAVE Arena Ota

BroadcastInternet PPV

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Wednesday, November 18, 2026 — watch on Internet PPV.

US East (ET): Wed 3:30 AM
US West (PT): Wed 12:30 AM
United Kingdom: Wed 8:30 AM
Central Europe: Wed 9:30 AM
Australia (Sydney): Wed 7:30 PM
Your time

Joshua PacioThe Passion |24-5-0Joshua Pacio vs Keito YamakitaKeito YamakitaPocket Monk |13-1-0

Joshua PacioThe Passion24-5-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

24-5-0Record13-1-0

30Age30

5'4"Height5'1"

-Reach65"

125 lbsWeight125 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Keito YamakitaPocket Monk13-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Joshua Pacio owns a 13-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Joshua Pacio and Keito Yamakita across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Joshua PacioKeito Yamakita

Recent form

Joshua PacioW L W W W · +39 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Keito YamakitaW W W W W · +77 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Joshua Pacio1724+10 last move

Keito Yamakita1711+14 last move

Why they are ranked here

Joshua Pacio#1 of 10 active Strawweight fighters · 1724 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jarred Brooks (rated 1741 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Yuya Wakamatsu (rated 1693 at the time): -16.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +39 Elo in total.
Next places: 57 ahead of #2 Anastasia Nikolakakos.

Keito Yamakita#16 of 235 active Flyweight fighters · 1711 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Tatsuki Ozaki (rated 1500 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Bokang Masunyane (rated 1646 at the time): -25.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +77 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #15 Brandon Royval, 3 ahead of #17 Bilal Hasan.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

53%Joshua Pacio47%Keito Yamakita

Model favoriteJoshua Pacio

Elo baseline52% for Joshua Pacio

Matchup adjustment+1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Joshua PacioStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Joshua Pacio leads the full model at 53%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 2 points.

Current Elo ratings1724 · 1711Joshua Pacio leads by 13 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1617 · 1557Joshua Pacio faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth27 · 14 fightsJoshua Pacio has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Joshua PacioNow 1724 · #1 Strawweight

Wins by decision+12→ 1736

Loses by decision-12→ 1712

Keito YamakitaNow 1711 · #16 Flyweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1728

Loses by decision-15→ 1696

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Joshua PaciovsKeito Yamakita

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Joshua PacioKO/TKO leads 42% of wins

Keito Yamakitadecision leads 54% of wins

Common opponents

Yosuke SarutaJoshua Pacio: win · KO/TKO (Punches) · Sep 24, 2021Keito Yamakita: win · Decision (Split) · Aug 2, 2024

Alex SilvaJoshua Pacio: win · Decision (Split) · Jan 31, 2020Keito Yamakita: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Mar 24, 2023

Tale of the tape

Joshua PacioKeito Yamakita

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC strawweight average : 4.14

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC strawweight average : 45%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC strawweight average : 4.13

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC strawweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC strawweight average : 1.36

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC strawweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC strawweight average : 60%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC strawweight average : 0.44

10Wins by knockout1

9Wins by submission5

4Wins by decision7

1Losses by knockout0

2Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision1

Joshua Pacio vs Keito Yamakita is a scheduled Fight card fight on ONE SAMURAI 5 : PACIO VS YAMAKITA. Joshua Pacio enters with a 24-5-0 record and Keito Yamakita enters with a 13-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.