Combat Edge Intelligence

Julia Polastri vs Talita Alencar

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-6-0Record8-1-1
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'2"Height5'1"
63"Reach58"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
CWB FighterTeamTemple Martial Arts

What's at stake

Talita Alencar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Julia Polastri carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Julia PolastriNow 1648
If they win+17→ 1665
If they lose-15→ 1633
Talita AlencarNow 1668
If they win+15→ 1683
If they lose-17→ 1651

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1589 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.40
Sig. strikes / min
2.91
55%
Strike accuracy
38%
5.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.36
57%
Strike defense
56%
0.73
Takedown avg.
3.02
80%
Takedown accuracy
27%
61%
Takedown defense
67%
0.37
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Julia PolastriTalita Alencar
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
3 (21%)
Submission
4 (50%)
6 (43%)
Decision
4 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Julia Polastri and Talita Alencar within a point of even.

Talita Alencar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1668 to 1648, a 20-point edge.

Talita Alencar enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Julia Polastri finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Talita Alencar 50%.

Julia Polastri carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.