Justin Gaethje vs Michael Chandler
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-5-0Record23-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
70"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Genesis Training CenterTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Michael Chandler carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1876
If they lose-17→ 1852
If they win+17→ 1749
If they lose-7→ 1725
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1808 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1772 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin GaethjeMichael Chandler
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Gaethje80%
Michael Chandler 20%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 80% favorite over Michael Chandler in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1732, a 137-point edge.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Michael Chandler enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Justin Gaethje finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chandler 78%.
Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler share 4 common opponents: Paddy Pimblett, Dustin Poirier, Charles Oliveira and Tony Ferguson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.