Justin Gaethje vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-5-0Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'0"
70"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Genesis Training CenterTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1875
If they lose-18→ 1851
If they win+18→ 1677
If they lose-6→ 1653
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1808 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin GaethjeTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Gaethje92%
Tony Ferguson 8%Elo baseline: 77%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 92% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1659, a 210-point edge.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Justin Gaethje finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Justin Gaethje and Tony Ferguson share 3 common opponents: Paddy Pimblett, Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler.
Tony Ferguson carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.