Justin Tafa vs Louie Sutherland
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record11-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
74"Reach76"
265 lbsWeight266 lbs
NTG Fight & FitnessTeamGreat Britain Top Team
What's at stake
Justin Tafa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Louie Sutherland carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1623
If they lose-17→ 1591
If they win+17→ 1601
If they lose-15→ 1569
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1604 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin TafaLouie Sutherland
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Louie Sutherland56%
Justin Tafa 44%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Louie Sutherland a 56% favorite over Justin Tafa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Tafa's way (47%).
Justin Tafa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1608 to 1584, a 24-point edge.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Justin Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Louie Sutherland 73%.
Louie Sutherland carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.