Justin Tafa vs Louie Sutherland
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record11-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
74"Reach76"
265 lbsWeight266 lbs
NTG Fight & FitnessTeamGreat Britain Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin TafaLouie Sutherland
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Louie Sutherland52%
Justin Tafa 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Louie Sutherland a 52% favorite over Justin Tafa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Tafa's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1608 vs 1605), separated by just 3 points.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Justin Tafa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Louie Sutherland 73%.
Louie Sutherland carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.