Justin Tafa vs Louie Sutherland

Sep 27, 2025 · ESPN+

DateSep 27, 2025

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueRAC Arena

BroadcastESPN+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 27, 2025 — watch on ESPN+.

US East (ET): Sat 10:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 7:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 3:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 4:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 12:00 PM
Your time

Justin TafaBad Man |7-5-0Justin Tafa vs Louie SutherlandLouie SutherlandThe Vanilla Gorilla |11-6-0

Justin TafaBad Man7-5-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

7-5-0Record11-6-0

32Age32

6'0"Height6'3"

74"Reach76"

265 lbsWeight266 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Louie SutherlandThe Vanilla Gorilla11-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Justin Tafa owns a 26-point Elo edge (solid). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Justin Tafa and Louie Sutherland across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Justin TafaLouie Sutherland

Recent form

Justin TafaL L W W W · +65 Elo last 5

LLWWW

Louie SutherlandL W L L W · -20 Elo last 5

LWLLW

Elo edge

Justin Tafa1608-17 last move

Louie Sutherland1582-20 last move

Why they are ranked here

Justin Tafa#112 of 174 active Heavyweight fighters · 1608 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Austen Lane (rated 1641 at the time): +33.
Costliest loss: Lost to Yorgan De Castro (rated 1615 at the time): -26.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +65 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #111 Jake Craig, 0 ahead of #113 Daniil Matsola.

Louie Sutherland#127 of 174 active Heavyweight fighters · 1582 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Luis Carlos de Brito (rated 1500 at the time): +24.
Costliest loss: Lost to José Montanha (rated 1582 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -20 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #126 Ken Hasegawa, 1 ahead of #128 Kasim Aras.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Justin TafaNow 1608 · #112 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1623

Loses by decision-17→ 1591

Louie SutherlandNow 1582 · #127 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1599

Loses by decision-15→ 1567

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Justin TafavsLouie Sutherland

Takedown average

0vs4.49

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

5.11vs1.95

Sig. strikes landed per min

4.05vs1.80

Takedown defense

53%vs33%

Finishing profile

Justin TafaKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Louie SutherlandKO/TKO leads 73% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Justin TafaLouie Sutherland

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.05Sig. strikes landed per min1.80

UFC heavyweight average : 3.77

54Sig. strike accuracy69

UFC heavyweight average : 49%

5.11Sig. strikes absorbed per min1.95

UFC heavyweight average : 3.92

47Sig. strike defense35

UFC heavyweight average : 51%

0Takedown average4.49

UFC heavyweight average : 1.40

0Takedown accuracy0

UFC heavyweight average : 30%

53Takedown defense33

UFC heavyweight average : 53%

0Submission average0

UFC heavyweight average : 0.44

7Wins by knockout8

0Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision3

2Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission2

3Losses by decision3

Justin Tafa vs Louie Sutherland is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ULBERG VS REYES. Justin Tafa enters with a 7-5-0 record and Louie Sutherland enters with a 11-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.